Optimal Futures Hedge with Marking-to-Market and Stochastic Interest Rates
Carolyn W. Chang
California State University , Fullerton
Jack S. K. Chang and Hsing Fang
California State University, Los Angeles
Abstract
We investigate the effect of marking-to-market on an optimal futures hedge under stochastic interest rates. An intertemporal optimal hedge ratio that accounts for basis risk and marking-to-market is derived. This ratio includes all previous hedge ratios, with constant interest rates as special cases. In a preliminary empirical study using S&P 500 index futures contracts, we demonstrate that the futures-forward hedging differential is nontrivial, especially in risk-return optimization. We also show that the covariances between interest rates and spot and futures prices explain the differential: the larger the covariances are, the larger the differential will be.
Evidence on the Effect of Taxes on Firms' Decisions to Retire Debt Early
Gil B. Manzon Jr.
Boston College
Thomas L. Porter
Boston College
Mark E. Porter
University of Massachusetts
Abstract
We examine the effect of marginal tax rates on the decision to retire debt early. Other factors that have been linked to the debt retirement decision are also investigated, including leverage adjustment and the value associated with the immediate recognition of a loss for tax purposes on early retirement. Results indicate that firms that retire debt early have lower marginal tax rates than firms that do not retire debt early. This finding is consistent with the proposition that firms are motivated to retire debt early by an incentive to reduce tax shields that cannot be used efficiently. Further, firms that retire debt early are more highly leveraged than firms that do not retire debt early. Evidence also suggests that some firms retire debt early at a loss to reduce currently taxable income.
Market Reaction to National Discretion in Implementing the Basle Accord
John Wagster
Wayne State University
James Kolari
Texas A&M University
Kerry Cooper
Texas A&M University
Abstract
We report the wealth effects among banks in the United States , Japan , Canada , and the United Kingdom in reaction to public announcements concerning their respective national implementation of the 1988 Basle Accord, an international risk-based capital regulatory agreement. Previous survey findings indicate bankers in different countries perceive that national discretion could threaten the competitive equity goals of the new risk-based capital rules. Based on a multivariate regression model using seemingly unrelated equations, we find significantly positive and negative market reactions by bank investors to individual announcements of different countries' post-Accord capital rules. However, no particular country's banks were systematically advantaged or disadvantaged with national discretion announcements viewed in aggregate. Although national discretion does affect bank wealth, the evidence does not suggest that national implementation compromises the competitive goals of the Accord.
The Relation Between the Federal Funds Cash and Futures Markets
Mark D. Griffiths
Lehigh University
Drew B. Winters
University of Southern Mississippi
Abstract
The introduction of futures contracts did not alter the regularity in the cash market that results from the Federal Reserve regulation of the bank-settlement process. Although we find a positive preholiday effect in the Fed funds futures returns, we do not find evidence that Federal Reserve regulations cause that effect. Contrary to previous observations for other futures contracts, we find Fridays and preholidays have the largest net volume. We suggest this finding of high volume is consistent with hedging activity by financial institutions before market closings.
The Determinants and Dynamics of Bid-Ask Spreads on the London Stock Exchange
Kojo Menyah
London Guildhall University
Krishna Paudyal
Glasgow Caledonian University
Abstract
We analyze the effect of various factors on the size of spreads on the London Stock Exchange since "Big Bang" and find that the price of a security, volume of transactions, risk associated with security returns, and degree of competition among market makers explain 91 percent of the cross-sectional variation in spreads. The results are consistent with the argument that the inside spread encompasses the order-processing, inventory-adjustment, and adverse-information cost of spreads. We also investigate the speed at which spreads move toward their normal levels after a temporary deviation. Although the speed of adjustment varies across firms, the cross-sectional median of 0.896 indicates it takes more than one period (day) for the adjustment to be completed. The volume of transactions and the degree of competition among market makers are the significant factors that affect the speed of correction in spreads toward their normal levels. This implies private information is incorporated more quickly into prices for stocks with greater competition and high trading volume.
Macroeconomic Variables and Seasonal Mean Reversion in Stock Returns
Partha Gangopadhyay
St. Cloud State University
Abstract
In this paper I investigate whether seasonal mean reversion in stock portfolio returns is related to common macroeconomic risk factors. I decompose excess returns into explained and unexplained returns using a multifactor pricing model. The explained excess returns exhibit January mean reversion; the unexplained excess returns do not. The mean reversion can be attributed to the components of return related to unexpected inflation, bond default premium, and market risk. The results do not depend on the time-series properties of the portfolio betas. Bond default premia and excess market returns are mean reverting in January.
Leverage, Risk-shifting Incentive and Stock-based Compensation
T. Harikumar
University of Alaska , Fairbanks
Abstract
Outstanding risky debt provides risk-shifting incentives for managers fully aligned with stockholders. Earlier research shows that the risk-shifting incentive can be eliminated by using a stock-based compensation design to align managers' and stockholders' interests. I show that stock options as well as compensation designs that align managers' and bondholders' interests eliminate the risk-shifing incentive. Although a stock-based compensation design is not a unique mechanism to eliminate the pure risk-shifting incentive, it is essential where managers of levered firms are known to consume a portion of the investment outlay as perquisites.
The Negative Relation Between Daily Index Return Serial Correlations and Conditional Variances: Does it Have Mathematical or Economic Origins?
David R. Peterson
Florida State University
Abstract
Previous research finds a negative relation between daily index return first-order serial correlations and conditional variance. However, this finding should not necessarily be surprising since an inherent, negative mathematical relation exists between the two measures. I use progressively longer holding-period intervals for conditional variance estimation to diminish the mathematical correspondence between variances and daily serial correlation. In the process, approximately two-thirds to three-quarters of the negative relation vanishes. Thus, most of the negative relation documented previously is likely due to mathematical relations. What is left may have minor economic importance.
Excess Returns and Risk at the Long End of the Treasury Market: An EGARCH-M Approach
Allan D. Brunner
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
David P. Simon
Bentley College
Abstract
In this paper we model weekly excess returns of ten-year Treasury notes and long-term Treasury bonds from 1968 through 1993 using an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity in mean (EGARCH-M) approach. The results indicate the presence of conditional heteroskedasticity and a strong tendency for the ex-ante volatility of excess returns to increase more following negative excess return innovations compared with positive innovations of equal magnitude. In addition, increases in ex-ante volatility are associated in some subperiods with rising excess returns on longer-term instruments, although the slope of the yield curve and lagged excess returns generally remain significant predictors of excess returns.