Switching to a Temporary Call Auction in Times of High Uncertainty
David Abad
Universidad de Alicante, Spain
Roberto Pascual
Universitat de les Illes Balears, Spain
Abstract
We evaluate a stock-specific circuit breaker implemented in several European stock exchanges, which consists of a short-lived call auction triggered by intraday stock-specific price limits. It differs from U.S. trading halts in that it is short-lived, nondiscretionary, and a trading mechanism (continuous or discrete) is always going. It differs from daily price limits in that trade prices are not restricted once the limit is hit. Intraday price ranges are smaller and adjusted to the recent volatility, so that limit hits are more frequent. We contribute to the debate about circuit breakers by enlarging the span of these mechanisms studied.
Forthcoming
Convertible Debt and Risk-Shifting Incentives
Assaf Eisdorfer
University of Connecticut
Abstract
I argue that convertible debt, in contrast to its perceived role, can produce shareholders' risk-shifting incentives. When a firm's capital structure includes convertible debt, every investment decision affects not only the distribution of the asset value but also the likelihood that the debt will be converted and thereby the distribution of the firm's leverage. This suggests that managers can engage in risk-increasing projects if a higher asset risk generates a more favorable distribution of leverage. Empirical evidence using 30 years of data supports my argument.
Forthcoming
Expected and Unexpected Volatility and the Cross-section of Stock Returns
Choong Tze Chua
Singapore Management University
Jeremy Goh
Singapore Management University
Zhe Zhang
Singapore Management University
Abstract
Existing literature has found conflicting results on the cross-sectional relation between expected returns and idiosyncratic volatility. We contend that at the firm level, the dominance of unexpected returns over expected returns make total returns poor proxies for expected returns. Consequently, the sample correlation between unexpected returns and expected idiosyncratic volatility can cloud the true relation between the expected return and expected idiosyncratic volatility. We address this issue by first decomposing idiosyncratic volatility into expected and unexpected idiosyncratic volatility. We show strong evidence that unexpected idiosyncratic volatility is positively related to unexpected returns and that this relationship is consistent with the option effect proposed by Merton (1974). Using unexpected idiosyncratic volatility to control for unexpected returns, we find expected idiosyncratic volatility to be significantly and positively related to expected returns. This result is robust after controlling for various firm characteristics, including liquidity, and is also robust across different sample periods.
Forthcoming
Risk Premium Effects on Implied Volatility Regressions
Leonidas S. Rompolis
University of Cyprus
Elias Tzavalis
Athens University of Economics and Business
Abstract
Forthcoming
Backdating and Directors Incentives: Money or Reputation?
Kristina Minnick
Bentley College
Mengxin Zhao
University of Alberta
Abstract
Forthcoming
Institutional Trading and Opening Price Behavior: Evidence from a Fat Emerging Market
Chaoshin Chiao
National Dong Hwa University
Weifeng Hung
Feng Chia University
Cheng F. Lee
Rutgers University
Abstract
We investigate the cross-sectional relation between stock price and institutional trading in the Taiwan stock market, widely dominated by individual investors. We find that the institutional investors do herd because of their positive feedback trading behaviors, rather than following trades made by other institutions. The positive correlation between institutional trade imbalance and stock returns is also driven by institutional positive feedback trading, instead of price impact or forecasting ability. The source of positive feedback trading comes from the return measured not only over the past trading day but also over the opening session.
Forthcoming
The Economic Gains of Trading Stocks Around the Holidays
Ilias Tsiakas
University of Warwick
Abstract
This paper assesses the economic gains of strategies which account for the impact of holiday calendar effects in the daily returns and volatility of the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average index. We use a set of stochastic volatility models, which measure the effect on both returns and volatility of distinguishing between regular trading days and pre-holidays, post-holidays, pre-long weekends and post-long weekends. Bayesian methods are implemented for estimation of the empirical models. More importantly, we assess the economic value of conditioning on holiday effects, and that a risk averse investor will pay a high performance fee to switch from a dynamic portfolio strategy which does not account for the impact of holidays on daily conditional expected returns and volatility to a strategy which does. This result is robust to reasonable transaction costs.
Forthcoming
Dynamic Order Submission and Herding Behavior in Electronic Trading
Wing Lon Ng
University of Essex
Abstract
I analyze the dynamic trading behavior of market participants by developing a bivariate modeling framework for describing the arrival process of buy and sell orders in a limit order book. The model contains two components for capturing the cluster structure of durations and order types: an extended ACD model with a exible generalized Beta distribution to explain the duration process, combined with a dynamic logit model to capture the traders' order submission strategy. I find that the state of the order book as well as the speed of the order arrival have a significant influence on the order placement, inducing temporal asymmetric market movements.
Forthcoming
Private Benefits: Ownership vs. Control
Bill Hu
Arkansas State University
Joon Ho Hwang
Korea University
Abstract
We empirically decompose private benefits into two components: benefits accruing from ownership and benefits accruing from control. We document that private benefits, as measured by the block premium, increase slowly with respect to the level of ownership, as measured by the percentage of shares acquired in the block trade. On the other hand, private benefits increase rapidly with respect to the blockholder’s likelihood of exercising control in the company. This decomposition of private benefits allows us to quantify non-pecuniary private benefits by examining the block premium when the blockholder’s likelihood of exercising control in the company is very close to zero.
Forthcoming
Keiretsu Affiliation and Stock Market Driver Acquisitions
Christine Brown
University of Melbourne
Carlson Fung
University of Melbourne
Abstract
In this paper we examine misvaluation as a driver of takeover activity in Japan. With a corporate architecture characterised by keiretsu groupings of firms, Japan offers a unique environment to assess the impact of stock market mispricing in a corporate governance setting different from that of the US. Mirroring empirical results from the US, we find that overvaluation is an important factor affecting the dichotomy between acquirers and non-acquirers in Japan. Being affiliated to a keiretsu group appears to reduce the probability that an overvalued firm will decide to acquire another firm. Misvaluation is also an important determinant of the likelihood of a firm becoming a target; however there is no significant difference between keiretsu and non-keiretsu firms in this regard. Shareholders of keiretsu-affiliated acquirers do not gain from acquisitions, whereas acquisitions by non-affiliated firms do seem to be value enhancing.
Forthcoming
Do Multiple Large Shareholders Play a Corporate Governance Role? Evidence from East Asia
Najah Attig
St. Mary's University
Sadok El Ghoul
University of Alberta
Omrane Guedhami
University of South Carolina
Abstract
This paper examines the governance role of multiple large shareholder structures (MLSS) to determine the valuation effects of MLSS in a sample of 1,252 publicly traded firms from nine East Asian economies. We find that the presence, number, and size of multiple large shareholders are associated with a significant valuation premium. Our results also show that MLSS identity influences corporate value, and that the valuation effects of MLSS are more pronounced in firms where agency costs are more severe. Overall, our results imply that MLSS play a valuable monitoring role in curbing the diversion of corporate resources.
Forthcoming
Short Selling and Mispricings When Fundamentals are Known
Sean Masaki Flynn
Vassar College
Abstract
The larger a closed-end fund's premium over its portfolio value, the more intensely it is sold short. This behavior should reduce mispricings. However, short selling affects neither the observed rate at which premia revert to fundamental values nor the rate of return on fund shares. This apparent contradiction can be explained as follows: Short selling does reduce prices, but the effect is impounded into prices by the time short positions are tabulated by the NYSE each month. Consequently, the monthly short selling data does not predict future price movements.
Forthcoming
Corporate Hedging and Shareholder Value
Kevin Aretz
Lancaster University
Sohnke M. Bartram
Lancaster University ans SSgA
Abstract
According to financial theory, corporate hedging can increase shareholder value in the presence of capital market imperfections such as direct and indirect costs of financial distress, costly external financing, and taxes. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the extensive existing empirical literature that has tested these theories, documenting overall mixed empirical support for rationales of hedging with derivatives at the firm level. While various empirical challenges and limitations advise some caution with regard to the interpretation of the existing evidence, the results are, however, consistent with derivatives use being just one part of a broader financial strategy that considers the type and level of financial risks, the availability of risk-management tools, and the operating environment of the firm. In particular, recent evidence suggests that derivatives use is related to debt levels and maturity, dividend policy, holdings of liquid assets, and the degree of operating hedging. Moreover, corporations do not just use financial derivatives, but rely heavily on pass-through, operational hedging, and foreign currency debt to manage financial risk.
Forthcoming
Risk & Hedging Behavior: The Role
and Determinants of Latent Heterogeneity
Joost M. E. Pennings
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and Maastricht University
Philip Garcia
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Abstract
The notion of heterogeneous behavior is well grounded in economic theory. Recently Pennings and Garcia (2004) showed in a hedging context that the influence of risk attitudes and risk perceptions varies for different segments using a generalized mixture regression model. Here, using recently developed individual risk-attitude measurement techniques and experimental and accounting data from investors with differing decision environments, we examine the determinants of the heterogeneity in hedging behavior in a concomitant mixture regression framework. Allowing for latent heterogeneity, we find that risk attitudes and risk perceptions do not influence behavior uniformly and that the heterogeneity is influenced by manager’s focus on shareholder value and the firm’s capital structure.
Forthcoming
Information Asymmetry, Dividend Status and SEO Announcement Day Returns
Laurence Booth
University of Toronto
Bin Chang
University of Ontario Institute of Technology
Abstract
This paper analyzes the relation between the dividend paying status of a firm and the SEO announcement day return. Asymmetric information theory suggests there should be a positive relationship: the larger the disagreement, particularly between managers and shareholders, the larger the price-drop on the SEO announcement day. However, this theoretical result has not been supported by prior empirical research. In this paper we reconcile the gap between the theory and extant empirical results by identifying a structural change in the way the stock market treats dividend paying firms. Since the mid-1980s the difference in information asymmetry between dividend and non-dividend paying firms has increased sharply. As a result, prior to the mid 1980’s the market did not differentiate strongly between them, but subsequently the market has reacted less negatively to announcements by dividend payers.
Forthcoming
Mutual Funds Selection Based on Fund Characteristics
Diana P. Budiono
Erasmus University Rotterdam
Martin Martens
Erasmus University Rotterdamn and Robeco Asset Management
Abstract
The popular investment strategy in literature is to use only past performance to select mutual funds. This study investigates whether an investor can select superior funds by additionally using fund characteristics. After considering the fees of funds, we find that combining information on past performance, turnover ratio and ability produces a yearly excess net return of 8.0%, while an investment strategy that uses only past performance generates 7.1%. Adjusting for systematic risks, and then additionally using fund characteristics increases yearly alpha significantly from 0.8% to 1.7%. Importantly, the strategy that also uses fund characteristics requires less turnover.
Forthcoming
Determinants of Capital Structure in Business Start-ups: The Role of Nonfinancial Stakeholder Relationship Costs
Tom Franck
Katholieke Universiteit Leuven and Lessius Hogeschool
Nance Huyghebaert
Katholieke Universiteit Leuven
Abstract
According to the finance literature, nonfinancial stakeholders (NFS), such as customers, suppliers, and employees, take into account their expected liquidation costs when dealing with a firm. In this framework, firms can influence their probability of liquidation by choosing an appropriate capital structure. Also, the literature suggests NFS bargaining power may affect firm financing decisions. In the current article we investigate these ideas for initial financing decisions by business start-ups, where ex ante failure risk is high and NFS must decide whether to make relationship-specific investments. We find that start-ups imposing larger costs upon their NFS following liquidation significantly reduce leverage. This effect is strengthened when suppliers have greater bargaining power. We also document a marginally negative effect of NFS liquidation costs on the proportion of bank loans. Finally, business start-ups rely less on bank loans when customers and suppliers are in a powerful bargaining position.
Forthcoming
Debt Forgiveness and Stock Price Reaction of Lending Bank: Theory and Evidence from Japan
Nobuyuki Isagawa
Kobe University
Satoru Yamaguchi
Hiroshima University of Economics
Tadayasu Yamashita
Nanzan University
Abstract
We provide a simple model for analyzing how debt forgiveness affects the stock price of a lending bank. Our model shows that while debt forgiveness increases shareholder wealth of a bank in healthy financial condition it decreases shareholder wealth of a bank in unhealthy financial condition. We empirically investigate the announcement effect of debt forgiveness on bank stock prices in Japanese markets. On average, lending banks experience a significant negative announcement effect with respect to debt forgiveness. Consistent with the prediction of the model, we find a negative relationship between the announcement effect and the net bad loan ratio as a proxy of the unhealthiness of the financial condition of the bank.
Forthcoming
Trading-volume Shocks and Stock Returns: An Empircal Analysis
Zhaodan Huang
Utica College
James B. Heian
Utica College
Abstract
We examine the high-volume premium based on weekly risk-adjusted returns. For returns measured between 1962 and 2005, significant average weekly abnormal high-volume premiums up to 0.50% per week are documented. Most of the high-volume premiums are generated in the first two weeks, and high-volume premiums monotonically decline as the holding periods are extended. Evidence of reversal is also found as the holding periods are extended. Further, we find that the high-volume premiums depend upon the realized turnover in the holding period. We argue that the latter finding is in support of the visibility hypothesis of Miller (1977) and the theory of Merton (1987). Finally, we test whether high-volume premiums are compensation for taking additional risk. The results show that negative skewness, idiosyncratic risk, and liquidity risk are not able to explain the high-volume premiums.
Forthcoming
On the Robustness of Range-Based Volatility Estimators
Ozgur (Ozzy) Akay
Texas Tech University
Mark D. Griffiths
Miami University
Drew B. Winters
Texas Tech University
Abstract
We empirically examine Parkinson’s range-based volatility estimate in the federal funds market, which is unique because institutional regulations create a predictable pattern in interday volatility. We find that range-based volatility estimates and standard deviations produce the expected volatility pattern. We also find that at trading pressure points where microstructure noise should be greatest, that range-based estimates are less than the standard deviations. Thus, we support the argument that range-based volatility estimates remove the upward bias created by microstructure noise. We find that the Parkinson method is the most efficient range-based volatility measure among a set of alternates in this market.
Forthcoming
Portfolio Optimization Under Tracking Error and Weights Constraints
Isabelle Bajeux-Besnainou
The George Washington University
Riadh Belhaj
CNAM
Didier Maillard
CNAM
Roland Portait
CNAM and ESSEC
Abstract
The performance of active portfolio managers who must comply with a weights constraint is often assessed against a benchmark. The weights constraint is common as the funds are committed by their own prospectus to a minimum (or maximum) portfolio concentration. We characterize the optimal asset allocation and analyze the implications of the weights constraint on the manager’s performance and on the relevance of the Information Ratio. We obtain that, due to the weights constraint, at the optimum, the Information Ratio often decreases when the manager is free to deviate more from the benchmark.
Forthcoming
Optimal Portfolio Selection with a Shortfall Probability Constraint: Evidence from Alternative Distribution Functions
Yalcin Akcay
Koc University
Atakan Yalcin
Koc University
Abstract
We propose a new approach to optimal portfolio selection in a downside risk framework that allocates assets by maximizing expected return of a portfolio subject to a constraint on shortfall probability. The shortfall constraint reflects the typical desire of a loss-averse investor to limit downside risk by putting a probabilistic upper bound on the maximum likely loss. We compare the empirical performance of the mean-variance approach with the newly proposed asset allocation model in terms of their power to generate higher cumulative and risk-adjusted returns. The results indicate that the loss-averse portfolio with normal density outperforms the mean-variance approach based on the cumulative cash values, geometric mean returns, and average risk-adjusted returns. The relative performance of the symmetric thin-tailed, symmetric fat-tailed, and skewed fat-tailed distributions are evaluated in terms of average return, average risk, and average risk-adjusted return for the loss-averse portfolio with a constraint on the maximum expected loss. The asset allocation model with a downside risk constraint generates a more profitable trading strategy than the widely used mean-variance approach. This finding holds for alternative distribution functions (Normal, Student-t, Skewed-t), different measures of portfolio risk (standard deviation, VaR, Expected Shortfall), different levels of shortfall return (Rlow = 0%, –1%, –2%) and shortfall probability (θ = 2.5%, 5%, 10%), and alternative set of risky assets such as stock indices or individual stocks.
Forthcoming
State Dependency of Bank Stock Reaction to Federal Funds Rate Target Changes
Haiyan Yin
Indiana University South Bend
Jiawen Yang
The George Washington University
William C. Handorf
The George Washington University
Abstract
We investigate the effects of changes in the federal funds target rate on bank stock returns through an event-study analysis. We examine the state dependency of such effects and focus on the surprise elements of policy changes derived from the federal funds futures market. While we confirm an inverse relationship between bank stock returns and changes in the federal funds target rate previously supported in the literature, we find that bank stock returns only respond to surprise or unexpected changes in the federal funds target rate. We also find that such responses are conditional on the context in which policy changes take place.
Forthcoming
Dynamic Hedge Fund Style Analysis with Errors-in-Variables
Laurent Bodson
University of Liége
Alain Coën
University of Quebec in Montreal
Georges Hübner
Unversity of Liége
Abstract
This paper revisits the traditional return-based style analysis (RBSA) in presence of time-varying exposures and errors-in-variables (EIV). We first apply a selection algorithm using the Kalman filter to identify the more appropriate benchmarks for the analysed fund return. Then, we compute their corresponding higher moment estimated errors-in-variables, i.e. the measurement error series introducing the (cross) moments of order three and four. We adjust the selected benchmarks by
subtracting their higher moments estimated EIV from the initial return series, to obtain an estimate of the true uncontaminated benchmarks. We finally run the Kalman filter on these adjusted regressors. Analyzing EDHEC alternative indexes styles, we show that this technique improves the factor loadings and permits to identify more precisely the return sources of the considered hedge fund strategy.
Forthcoming
The Daylight Saving Time Anomaly in Stock Returns: Fact or Fiction?
Russell Gregory-Allen
Massey University
Ben Jacobsen
Massey University
Wessel Marquering
Erasmus University and Taler Asset Management
Abstract
Stock market returns in twenty-two markets around the world show no evidence of a Daylight Saving Time effect. Returns on the days following a switch from or to Daylight Saving Time do not behave any differently from stock market returns on any other day of the week or month. These results reject earlier conclusions in the literature -- based on less data -- that investors’ mood changes induced by changes in sleep patterns significantly affect stock returns.
Forthcoming
Regular(ized) Hedge Fund Clones
Daniel Giamouridis
Athens University of Economics and Business and Cass Business School
Sandra Paterlini
University of Modena and Reggio Emilia
Abstract
This article addresses the problem of portfolio construction in the context of efficient hedge fund investments replication. We propose a modification to the standard à la Sharpe “style analysis” by introducing a constraint on the asset weights 1-norm and 2-norm. This constraint regularizes the optimization problem, allows efficient selection of relevant factors - especially among a set of correlated factors - and has significant effects on the stability of the resulting asset mix and the risk-return characteristics of the replicating portfolio. The empirical results suggest that the norm-constrained replicating portfolios exhibit significant correlations with their benchmarks, often higher than 0.9; have a fraction, that is about half to two thirds, of active positions relative to those determined through the standard method; and are obtained with turnover, which is in some instances about one fourth of that for the standard method.
Forthcoming
Does it Pay to Disclose Managerial Earnings Information Early?
Gregory Gelles
Missouri University of Science and Technology
John S. Howe
University of Missouri-Columbia
Xuejing Xing
University of Alabama in Huntsville
Abstract
Does it pay to voluntarily disclose the manager’s private information about the firm’s earnings prospects before the mandatory announcement date? This question has been a subject of much debate because prior research establishes both benefits and costs of early information disclosure. We provide evidence on the net effect of such disclosure by examining its impact on firm value. Using a large sample and correcting for self-selection bias, we find that early disclosure of the manager’s private earnings information enhances the end-of-period value of the firm.
Forthcoming