ORIGINS OF A FORECASTER

You might say that Dhawan's desire to research and provide academic explanations for economic occurrences is in the blood. Academic roots run deep in the Dhawan family. His father is a renowned professor of economics in India, and his mother is a retired high school principal. In addition, his sister is an economist in Canada and his brother-in-law is an economist as well. Despite his family's academic roots, Dhawan noted that there was no real pressure by his family to be an academician or anything else; the understood agreement was that he find something he enjoys doing and can do well.

His first taste of forecasting came while he was working on his master's degree at Delhi University in India. There he took a macroeconometrics course that spurred his interest in economic forecasting. Although he pursued some courses at the doctoral level at UCLA, Dhawan credits his current success in forecasting to the strong foundation and training received in the field at Delhi University. He is quick to point out that he was taught by a professor whose teacher had been the Nobel Laureate Lawrence Klein, who received the prize for inventing the field of economic forecasting. His teacher advised him to travel to the United States to study. He subsequently chose to obtain his Ph.D. in the field from UCLA after being accepted by a number of prestigious schools including Northwestern University, Columbia University, the University of Pennsylvania and New York University.

But it was an opportunity to work with Larry Kimbell in the Business Forecasting Center at UCLA after graduation that gave him crucial practical experience for the field. "Learning the theoretical concepts alone isn't really enough to learn forecasting:' he said. "It was getting into the nitty gritty of the data that allowed me to ferret out the economic trends and patterns that really prepared me for this field."

Ironically, perhaps his greatest attribute for forecasting is something that can be a detriment in many other fields. "I have never been afraid to go out on a limb and speak my mind," he laughingly said. This willingness to speak out is something many economists are increasingly more reluctant to do, he said. "Many economists today consider forecasting to be a dirty word."

CURRENT STATE OF FORECASTING

Dhawan pointed out that he is the "last of the Mohicans" since forecasting itself is a dying career for several reasons. "Forecasting itself doesn't seem to have the same luster or rewards for the academic world as it did in the mid 1970s when it became trendy for the first and last time." Due to the volatility of the bond market and the complexities of the economy, many economists today are even more hesitant to make predictions," he added. There's also more competition from financial experts at brokerage and consulting firms. Those forecasters who are located in universities today also are expected to have greater teaching loads and to publish more research.

He noted that universities are placing less emphasis on forecasting and are offering fewer courses for students. The Robinson College of Business now houses one of only three nationally reputable forecasting centers in the country, according to Dhawan. "I'm proud to be called a forecaster and to be associated with a center that has such a strong reputation in the field." As for himself, Dhawan says he will continue to provide the economic predictions the business community and media still want to hear while extending the resources of the Center and reaching out to more constituencies. Judging from his quick start with the business community, Atlanta and the nation will be listening.