In trying to find positive signs in today's troubled economy one needs look no further than this issue of The State of Business.
In addition to Dr. Rajeev Dhawan's outlook for an economic recovery to begin in mid 2002, we look at an industry that has seen phenomenal growth worldwide but whose greatest potential may be right here in the United States.
Wireless communications devices will top $1 billion in 2002, exceeding the total number of all computing devices. Out of a current world population of six billion, 800 million people currently own a mobile device. But, whereas the worth of the mobile commerce market in Europe, for example, is expected to reach $23 billion by 2003, the U.S. total will be much lower at $3 billion. Wireless penetration in Europe is estimated approximately at 75 percent; at 65 percent in Japan at only 47percent in the United States.
Why has the U.S. lagged behind? Why could this country be the biggest winner in the future? What are the new applications that will drive wireless growth? What major business opportunities lie ahead? What are the chief threats to a wireless future?
Through a series of interviews with faculty experts, industry leaders and students from around the world, this issue tackles these and other pressing questions related to mobile commerce.
Upkar Varshney, Robinson's foremost expert in wireless communications, is the subject of an industry overview. Graduate student Alisha Malloy, whom Varney advised in her doctoral studies, discusses her dissertation on wireless dependability in the same article. Another faculty member, Ralph "Bud" Hamilton, brings his expertise and insights on wireless security to this issue.
The business side of the wireless equation is explored from various aspects. Jere Drummond, a Robinson alumnus and retiring vice chairman of BellSouth Corporation, recounts the development of wireless communications in the U.S. and talks of factors that will encourage more usage in the future.
Tom Dougherty tells us how he took his company, AirGate PCS, Inc., to communications prominence as the nation's largest affiliate of Sprint's wireless unit. As noted in the article, "With AirGate, Dougherty joined a company that had a gold mine, but no shovels." Tom, who holds both bachelor's and master's degrees from Robinson, helped AirGate find those "shovels" and expand its service from major markets to many smaller urban areas.
Two other alumni and members of the College's Board of Advisors discuss the entrepreneurial aspects of the mobile market. Jim Harkins, who helped Amazon.com expand its access to wireless subscribers when Amazon acquired his Convergence Corporation, continues to mentor early-stage technology companies. Richard Vines, a venture capital investor and partner in the firm Geocapital Partners, has been instrumental in funding companies that focus on wireless applications and the infrastructure of mobile communications.
Finally, a sampling of Robinson students discusses wireless communications from a more personal perspective.
Even as the financial markets have sputtered over the past year, the potential of many major sectors, such as wireless, give us reason to feel encouraged about the underlying strength of our nation's economic system. When you read this issue, you'll understand why.
Sidney E. Harris
Dean
Robinson College of Business
